Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.042359 0.047788 0.053810 0.061014 0.069436 0.079015 0.090799
2026-02-08 0.034577 0.041485 0.049755 0.060489 0.074200 0.091335 0.114694
2026-02-15 0.028992 0.036663 0.046475 0.060168 0.079145 0.105072 0.144174
2026-02-22 0.024984 0.033140 0.044226 0.060795 0.085646 0.122766 0.184940
2026-03-01 0.021709 0.030067 0.042078 0.061222 0.092204 0.142771 0.237142
2026-03-08 0.018603 0.026749 0.039042 0.059798 0.095823 0.159765 0.292493
2026-03-15 0.015542 0.023044 0.034831 0.055721 0.094228 0.167837 0.336269
2026-03-22 0.013850 0.021215 0.033300 0.055880 0.100396 0.193038 0.431079
2026-03-29 0.012628 0.019967 0.032533 0.057293 0.109584 0.228621 0.576159
2026-04-05 0.011409 0.018549 0.031243 0.057484 0.116537 0.262926 0.748095
2026-04-12 0.010318 0.017204 0.029876 0.057259 0.122707 0.298998 0.963821
2026-04-19 0.009254 0.015768 0.028116 0.055857 0.125818 0.329167 1.196934
2026-04-26 0.008195 0.014228 0.025963 0.053252 0.125474 0.350646 1.432661
2026-05-03 0.007543 0.013382 0.025090 0.053441 0.132955 0.403250 1.917346
2026-05-10 0.006975 0.012631 0.024302 0.053691 0.140957 0.464746 2.601445
2026-05-17 0.006529 0.012068 0.023836 0.054680 0.151883 0.548169 3.701210
2026-05-24 0.006115 0.011519 0.023315 0.055427 0.162601 0.642432 5.297946
2026-05-31 0.005638 0.010783 0.022257 0.054466 0.167165 0.713402 7.052293
2026-06-07 0.005072 0.009794 0.020474 0.051055 0.161434 0.725729 8.157590
2026-06-14 0.004775 0.009366 0.019984 0.051389 0.170702 0.838230 11.865932
2026-06-21 0.004562 0.009101 0.019857 0.052825 0.185496 1.009502 19.115050
2026-06-28 0.004314 0.008727 0.019403 0.053133 0.195787 1.168462 29.408384
2026-07-05 0.004071 0.008340 0.018862 0.053039 0.204429 1.333232 45.216546